How Well Can You Predict What Will Make You Happy?

Your brain is a powerful machine. It can do so many things!

But one thing we can’t rely on it for? Predicting what will make us happy in the future. 

Does that sound strange to you? After all, our brains have all of the information we’re ever going to have, shouldn’t that be what we need to look at our choices, imagine our future, and decide which is the most likely to make us happy?

Turns out–no! 

The short explanation is that our brains just can’t remove the context of our current situation or mood when imagining our future–so whatever our current mood and outlook are, that’s how our brains will imagine the future. And on top of that, our brains massively overestimate how happy for how long something will actually make us! 

The longer explanation is that Harvard professor of psychology, Dan Gilbert, along with a handful of other psychologists (and one economist) have been using the last few years to study behavioral prediction; specifically: how we predict what will make us happy and how we actually feel after the fact. What they found is that almost all of the decisions we make are based on how we think we’ll feel after those decisions. 

So the question becomes: how well can we really predict what will make us happy? 

There are strengths and weaknesses in our ability to predict our own happiness. When it comes to deciding relatively what would make us happier, we can choose basic things confidently and accurately. As the New York Times puts it: “we can accurately predict that we'd rather be stuck in Montauk than in a Midtown elevator.”

We know roughly things that will make us happier than other things.

And we know that something like buying a fancy new car or getting a promotion will make us happy. However, what we overlook–or, often, overestimate–is the impact of that happiness & how long it will last. 

It’s easy to imagine your future where you’ve gotten a promotion, and assume that it will fix your life. You’ll be making more money, you’ll have more expertise & authority in your field, therefore you will be more respected, you’ll be able to treat yourself to nicer things with your increased income, etc. Those things may be true, but with a promotion presumably also comes more work, more professional responsibilities, possibly less free time, navigating a new co-worker pool or professional hierarchy, etc. 

So while the promotion is a good thing, and it may bring you a large amount of happiness the moment you find out about it, the feeling motivating that decision (ex: accepting the promotion) isn’t as long lasting as we imagine. 

When we imagine different future scenarios in our head we’re using a neat feature our brains have evolved to have, which is essentially an experience simulator. As Dan Gilbert says:

“Ben and Jerry's doesn't have "liver and onion" ice cream, and it's not because they whipped some up, tried it and went, "Yuck!" It's because, without leaving your armchair, you can simulate that flavor and say "yuck" before you make it.”

This is an incredible strength of our minds, something that animals can’t do like we can. However, where we overestimate its strength is in the longevity. 

Where Our Experience Simulator Fails:

While we can decide what decision we would like more in any given moment, what Gilbert’s research shows us is that our experience simulator makes us believe the different choices lead to outcomes far more different than they actually are. 

The reason for this is something Gilbert describes as a psychological immune system, which is really just a fancy way of saying humans are really good at adapting to their circumstances.  He says there are two options for happiness: natural happiness, that comes from getting whatever it was we wanted, and synthetic happiness, that comes from finding ways to be happy when we don’t get what we want. And it turns out, humans are really, really good at this! 

So why does this matter?

This is significant because it can help us reduce stress when it comes to decision making. If the amount of happiness you will have is about the same no matter what decision you make because of you “psychological immune system” then it reduces the pressure to make the “right” decision for your happiness. You know that one choice won’t ruin your chances at being happy in your life! Knowing this can help you feel more confident in values based decision making, and help you feel more aligned and fulfilled in your decisions overall. 

If you’re interested in learning how to get clear on your values to strengthen your confidence in decision making, working with a therapist can help give you the tools you need. Get in touch today to get started.